This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will try to get my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $30k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your cash game play for me . On the betting line he’s now -1100 and he is -206 to acquire ITD. He’s additionally +110 to win in round 1. He’s my favourite play on the plank, the only real issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I can for sure match him in. For GPPs it’s going to be more difficult to get 6 wins paying for his huge salary, but I like him there as well. I just will not make it a priority for him into these tournament lineups, but money I need that -1100 in my team for a safe win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I like to target. My preferred drama is Spann however Little Nog is in play also. The line for FDGTD is -280 and that I believe Spann could win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round as well. I think he can compete with the 9k fighters and that he is a man that kicks off them the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better fighter however and Spann doesn’t have a great chin himself, so that I really could see Nog winning through KO. I really don’t think that’s probably, therefore I will not be thick on himbut he will make my participant pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in most formats and that I will attempt to be obese on him. It is more of a fade on Small Nog at this time, but I really don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and that I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog play of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I anticipate Volkanovski to be quite chalky and rightfully so. He is my favorite play in this fight and his previous scores pretty much make him a man you can not fade if you are MMEing. I don’t see him having the ceiling he did in his previous fights vs Aldo, but those numbers are difficult to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have every totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent fight to his debut, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That’s pretty wonderful. I believe he’s a good chance of upsetting the legend and possibly getting a finish for another high score. I really don’t think Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to show that 100+ stage ceiling however at $7.8k we don’t need that many points. I think IF he wins, he readily pays off that wages.
Fade of this week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There is no way I’m paying 8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of this week and whether or not it burns me afterward it burns me. I really don’t see that being true though even when she wins. I expect this struggle to stay standing and that I don’t watch her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I don’t think she gets that finish so even when she wins I think she scores closer to 75 DK points and in her salary that won’t end up on the perfect lineup. Even if I make 150 lineups this week I won’t receive any exposure to Carolina.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I am 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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