This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that will be the last UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We’re back to having smaller prize pools for this particular occasion but there is still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice high prize are always my favourite contests to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will get a fantastic quantity of play in cash games. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best fight to get into cash games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a whole lot of sense. I believe that you can pile the most important event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score highly and based on Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a high floor, but he probably has the highest ceiling on the card as well. That is where I will be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP drama of this week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is almost a PK fight on the gambling odds today. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s ownership will go down due to that and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a end to score 100+ points and that’s why I like him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he can win then he must score well.
Underdog play of the week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s only +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we’re getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this battle. I do expect him to become one of the most well-known underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is probably going to be so not only would he have the triumph, but he would score highly too. I think if he does win this battle he then ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favourite underdog of this week for that reason.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I’m actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Conclusion. I’m fading him since he’s $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I do not see him becoming more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so much in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around that area again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds at winning a GPP because the other men in that $9k range likely score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every struggle, my personal strategies & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81u (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 months!)
Read more: nroda.org